WORLD AIR TRAFFIC EVOLUTION & FORECAST

Amongst hundreds of key indicators, growth air traffic and airplane deliveries are truly cue when analyzing the aviation market and its evolution. Airbus forecasts 4.3% constant global growth in air traffic annually. Factors such as GDP, middle class growth, ease of travel and local market changes are helping to consolidate these figures. This growth is boosting airplane deliveries to double the world fleet over the next 20 years.

Air Transport Figures

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IATA suggests that passengers may double up to 8.2 billion by 2037.

World Annual Air Traffic Growth

World Annual Air Traffic Growth April 2020

Traffic has proven to be resilient to external shocks and doubles every 15 years.

Airbus Forecast

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Airbus forecasts 4.3% growth in annual traffic in RPK until 2038.

SOURCE

Airbus Global Market Forecast 2017-2036, 2016 Boeing’s Current Market Outlook and World Airport Traffic Forecast IATA.

FLEET IN SERVICE & AIRCRAFT DELIVERIES

AIRBUS forecasts a total growth of fleet in service from 22,682 to 47,684 aircraft in 2038, including 39,213 new deliveries – being 14,211 from replacements and 25,002 from organic growth.

WORLD FLEET

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World fleet will grow more than double over the next 20 years. Source: Airbus

GLOBAL DEMAND

Global Aircraft Demand

Global demand for 39,210 new passenger & freighter aircraft. Source: Airbus

NEW DELIVERIES

Global Aircraft Demand

20-year Passenger & Freighter Aicraft Deliveries Forecast (2018-2038)

SOURCE

Airbus Global Market Forecast 2019, 2019-2038 Boeing’s Current Market Outlook and World Airport Traffic Forecast IATA.

WARNING

All figures shown are extracted from the latest released outlook from Airbus, Boeing and IATA. Covid 19 effects are not considered for being released earlier than the outbreak.

OTHER INDICATORS · MIDDLE CLASS GROWTH

With a growth of more than 17% every 10 years, middle class is driving the need for greater connectivity within Asia, Latin America and Africa, mainly in the 70 to 130-seat aircraft category, according to the International Air Transport Assotiation (IATA).

INDIA'S EXAMPLE

GLOBAL DEMAND

Middle class growth

Note: Middle-class households with yearly income between $20,000 and $150,000 at PPP in constant 2015 prices. Source: Oxford Economics, Airbus GMF 2019.

SOURCE

Airbus Global Market Forecast 2019, 2019-2038 Boeing’s Current Market Outlook and World Airport Traffic Forecast IATA.

WARNING

All figures shown are extracted from the latest released outlook from Airbus, Boeing and IATA. Covid 19 effects are not considered for being released earlier than the outbreak.

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